Setting Climate Committments for Manchester

Quantifying the implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement for Manchester

Following the Method the recommended energy only CO₂ carbon budget for the Manchester area for the period of 2020 to 2100 is 14.0 MtCO₂. To translate this into near to long term commitments a CO₂ reduction pathway within the 14.0 MtCO₂ is proposed here. A consistent emissions reduction rate of -12.4% out to the end of the century is applied. In 2043 95% of the recommended carbon budget is emitted and low level CO2 emissions continue at a diminishing level to 2100.

Figure 1: An interactive chart of Energy related CO₂ only emissions pathways (2010-2100) for Manchester premised on the recommended carbon budget.

Tracking your mouse over this chart will display the actual figures for each of the pathways, as well as for the lead-in historical values.

Pathway projections for Manchester

Table 1 presents the Manchester energy CO₂ only budget in the format of the 5-year carbon budget periods in the UK Climate Change Act. To align the 2020 to 2100 carbon budget with the budget periods in the Climate Change Act we have included estimated CO₂ emissions for Manchester for 2018 and 2019, based on BEIS provisional national emissions data for 2018 [14] and assuming the same year on year reduction rate applied to 2019. The combined carbon budget for 2018 to 2100 is therefore 18.1 MtCO₂.

Table 1: Periodic Carbon Budgets for 2018 for Manchester.

The recommended budget is the maximum cumulative CO₂ amount we consider consistent with Manchester’s fair contribution to the Paris Agreement. A smaller carbon budget, with accelerated reduction rates and an earlier zero carbon year, is compatible with this approach. It is however important that for an alternative zero carbon year the proposed 5 year budget periods are the same or lower that those specified in Figure 2. Furthermore meeting the budget must not rely on carbon offsets.

Figure 2: Cumulative CO₂ emissions for budget period (based on Table 1) from 2018 to 2100 for Manchester

The recommended carbon budget is based on a grandfathering allocation regime for sub-dividing the UK sub-national energy only carbon budget. There are three distinct allocation regimes that can be applied to determine sub-national budgets. We have opted to recommend one common approach for allocating carbon budgets that can be applied to all Local Authority areas. This enables straightforward compatibility between carbon budgets set at different administrative scales. For example this makes it easier for individual Local Authorities to calculate their own carbon budgets that are compatible with a budget set at Combined Authority scale. It also means that under the recommended carbon budgets, all Authorities are contributing to a common total UK carbon budget. If for example all Authorities selected the allocation regime that offered them largest carbon budget the combined UK budget would not comply with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The common approach to allocation we recommend therefore further assures that the carbon budget adopted is Paris Agreement compatible.

We have chosen a grandfathering as our common allocation approach because, based on our analysis, it is the most appropriate and widely applicable regime within the UK.

Population and Gross Value AddedBalanced approach at current basic prices (GVA) are alternative allocation regimes. Population shares the carbon budget equally across the UK on a per capita basis. In this allocation regime the UK population [15] is compared to that of Manchester [16] from 2011 to 2016. The carbon budget (2020-2100) for Manchester is then apportioned based on its average proportion of the UK population for the period 2011-2016. For regions where per capita energy demand deviates significantly from the average (e.g. a large energy intensive industry is currently located there) the budget allocated may not be equitable for all regions, therefore it is not recommended as the preferred allocation. GVA is used as an economic metric to apportion carbon budgets. For example, the UK total GVA [17] is compared to that of Manchester [17] from 2011 to 2016. The carbon budget (2020-2100) for Manchester is then apportioned based on Manchester's average proportion of UK GVA for the period 2011-2016. GVA can be useful as a proxy for allocation on economic value, however without an adjustment for the type of economic activity undertaken, areas with high economic ‘value’ relative to energy use can get a relatively large budget, while the inverse is true for areas with energy intensive industries, and/or lower relative economic productivity. We would therefore not recommend GVA as an appropriate allocation regime for all regions.

Table 2 presents the result outcomes for alterative allocation regimes – population and gross value added (GVA).

Table 2: Energy only CO₂ budgets and annual mitigation rates for Manchester (2020-2100) by allocation regime

To view the pathways for the Population and GVA allocation regimes, select the checkbox under Fig. 1

Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) consist of both emissions and removals of CO₂ from land and forests. We recommend that CO₂ emissions and sequestration from LULUCF are monitored separately from the energy-only carbon budgets provided in this report. Manchester should increase sequestration of CO₂ through LULUCF in the future, aligned with Committee on Climate Change's high level ambition of tree planting, forestry yield improvements and forestry management [18]. Where LULUCF is considered, we recommend it compensate for the effects of non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emissions (within the geographical area) that cannot be reduced to zero, such as non-CO₂ emissions from agriculture.

The IPCC SR1.5 report identifies the importance of non-CO₂ climate forcers (for instance methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and black carbon) in influencing the rate of climate change. However, a cumulative emission budget approach is not appropriate for all non-CO₂ greenhouse gases, as the physical and chemical properties of each leads to differing atmospheric lifetimes and warming effects [19]. There are also substantial relative uncertainties in the scale, timing and location of their effects.

We do not provide further analysis or a non-CO₂ emissions reduction pathway in this report. However the global carbon budget in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5ºC, that our analysis is based on, assumes a significant reduction in rate of methane and other non-CO₂ emissions over time. Therefore to be consistent with carbon budgets Manchester should continue to take action to reduce these emissions.

The Department of Business Energy and Industrial Strategy’s Local Authority emissions statistics do not at this time provide non-CO₂ emissions data at the regional level. Given the absence of robust non-CO₂ emissions data, any non-CO₂ emissions inventory by other organisations at scope 1 and 2 for Manchester may form the basis of monitoring and planning for these emissions. We recommend considering the adoption of a LULUCF pathway that includes CO₂ sequestration sufficient to help compensate for non-CO₂ emissions within Manchester's administrative area.

The results in this report show that for Manchester to make its fair contribution to delivering the Paris Agreement's commitment to staying “well below 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C” global temperature rise, then an immediate and rapid programme of decarbonisation is needed. At 2017 CO₂ emission levelsBased on Manchester's 2016 CO2 emissions (excluding aviation, shipping, process CO₂ emissions from cement production and those from LULUCF)., Manchester will exceed the recommended budget available within 7 years from 2020. To stay within the recommended carbon budget Manchester will, from 2020 onwards, need to achieve average mitigation rates of CO₂ from energy of around -12.4% per year. This will require that Manchester rapidly transitions away from unabated fossil fuel use. For context the relative change in CO₂ emissions from energy compared to a 2015 Paris Agreement reference year are shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Percentage reduction of annual emissions for the recommended CO₂-only pathway out to 2050 in relation to 2015

The carbon budgets recommended should be reviewed on a five yearly basis to reflect the most up-to-date science, any changes in global agreements on climate mitigation and progress on the successful deployment at scale of negative emissions technologies.

These budgets do not downscale aviation and shipping emissions from the UK national level. However if these emissions continue to increase as currently envisaged by Government, aviation and shipping will take an increasing share of the UK carbon budget, reducing the available budgets for combined and local authorities. We recommend therefore that Manchester seriously consider strategies for significantly limiting emissions growth from aviation and shipping. This could include interactions with the UK Government or other local authority and local enterprise partnership discussions on aviation that reflect the need of the carbon budget to limit aviation and shipping emissions growth.

CO₂ emissions in the carbon budget related to electricity use from the National Grid in Manchester are largely dependent upon national government policy and changes to power generation across the country. It is recommended however that Manchester promote the deployment of low carbon electricity generation within the region and where possible influence national policy on this issue.

We also recommend that the LULUCF sector should be managed to ensure CO₂ sequestration where possible. The management of LULUCF could also include action to increase wider social and environmental benefits..